After months of spending countless hours surfing political blogs and watching Sunday morning talk shows—instead of engaging in more productive things—I have absolutely no idea who will be the Democrats’ nominee. During recent travels around town, across the country, and even in Europe, I’ve searched without success for some consensus on this contest. The results of my completely random and unscientific worldwide polling echo current postings on Realclearpolitics.com. The world is looking for a speedy end to the Bush era, but can’t agree on a successor, except to the extent it should be either our neighbor Senator Clinton or her last standing opponent Senator Obama.

Anything is possible, but what is clear, is that this is a Democratic year, and the Democratic nominee will in all likelihood take the White House. Democratic turnout and fundraising this season have lapped Republican efforts several times, an unprecedented event. If history provides guidance, current Clinton/Obama campaign tensions will be forgotten by September, even if some of the dirt unearthed is still percolating. The brutal war in Iraq and serious economic problems noticeable even in Chappaqua ($3.95 per gallon gasoline!) will take center stage. Perhaps I’m delusional, but there’s just too much going in the world right now for the country to be side-tracked by any Willie Horton or Swiftboat nonsense.

Although the Democratic race is not over by any stretch, at the time of my submitting this column, we can see pretty clearly each candidate’s likely path(s) to the nomination, i.e., the collection of 2,025 delegates. Because there aren’t enough elected delegates left in the remaining state contests to enable either candidate to cross that threshold—about 400 to be split by some fashion into two—all roads to victory require the support of a majority of the Democratic party’s remaining uncommitted 795 Superdelegates.

The Clinton Path: Popular Vote or Obama Implosion?
At this late stage and behind in delegates, Senator Clinton’s path to victory has little margin for error, but it’s still possible. If she wins more popular votes than Senator Obama, it will be difficult for uncommitted Superdelegates to resist supporting her. f votes from Florida’s disallowed primary are counted, since both Senators Clinton and Obama were on the ballot, Senator Obama leads by just 200,000 out of approximately 30,000,000 votes cast. This margin is not overwhelming considering that Clinton is likely to perform well in upcoming primaries in Kentucky, Puerto Rico andWest Virginia, even if she performs less well in Indiana and Oregon. If Florida is not counted, then Hillary’s margin is steeper, and she’ll need to make up a gap of approximately 500,000 votes. However, various local and national Clinton supporters argue that her expected margin in Puerto Rico alone is likely to make up for most, if not all, of this deficit.

Alternatively, Senator Clinton must hang on long enough to convince the Superdelegates that Senator Obama is essentially an unelectable Starbucks swilling elitist out of touch with the proverbial “Joe Sixpack,”; that he can’t carry any big states; and/or that he has skeletons in his closet (in addition to his now-infamous Reverend Wright), i.e., Obama is another McGovern, Dukakis or Kerry. As local Obama supporters I spoke with acknowledge, Clinton has made headway in this area and has been able to drain Obama of some of his “yes we can” mojo. One Chappaqua Obama fan complimented Clinton’s strong performance in Pennsylvania. “She fought hard and strong,” he commented. “You’ve got to give her credit.” (I am personally intrigued by the possibility that she’ll start to frequent Chappaqua’s Quaker Hill Tavern drinking shots of bourbon as she did in rural Pennsylvania.)

The Obama Path: “Change” and Hang on Tight!
Another local Obama supporter explained to me that even after Hillary’s Pennsylvania primary victory, the dynamic is still with Senator Obama. “The dynamic is change…. He’s the future. She’s the past.” Perhaps this supporter has a point. Since Pennsylvania, the Superdelegates have continued to break for Senator Obama. And unverified reports are now indicating that a large number of

Superdelegates have confidentially committed to Obama, but are waiting for Senator Clinton to fail on her own before formally declaring their support. The current conventional view is that, if Obama wins Indiana, the race will be over quickly because Clinton needs to win an overwhelming majority of the remaining votes to justify continuing, and that without a win in Indiana, that can’t happen. By the time this piece is published, we’ll know the Indiana story. Even absent a win in Indiana, the Obama campaign believes it need only hang on until early June; and then Senator Obama will have enough Superdelegates to take the nomination. Senator Obama’s absolutely astounding fundraising activities suggest this scenario is plausible.

What Happens to Chappaqua?
But what does this mean for our little town? According to my 10-year-old son Jacob, if Hillary wins, “our town will be famous, everyone will want to move here, and it will get too crowded!” Alternatively, if Hillary loses, “it will suck!” It may be time to focus at home on a glass is “half full” perspective. I plan to point out to Jacob that our town is already pretty well-known because we are lucky to have a former President and current Senator in our midst; and to discuss the virtues of Sisyphus pushing his rock up the hill. But right now I have to make the 8:35 a.m. train. Can’t wait to see how this all plays out!

EVAN GLASSMAN is a litigation partner in the New York City office of a Washington, D.C.-based law firm. He moved to Chappaqua in 2000 (shortly after the Clintons) where he lives with his wife Jackie and their children Jacob and Abby. 

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